Monday, March 25, 2013

9.POT ODDS AND “OUTS” 2 – Online Poker

The next step is to use bet odds and implied odds. That's tougher, because it involves predicting reactions of other players. With bet odds, you try to factor in how many people are going to call a raise. With implied odds, you're thinking about reactions for the rest of the game. One last example on implied odds...

Say it's another $5/$10 hold em game and you have a four flush on the flop. Your neighbor bets, and everyone else folds. The pot is $50 at this point. First you figure out your chance of hitting your flush on the turn, and it comes out to about 19.1% (about 1 in 5).

You have to call this $5 bet versus a $50 pot, so that's a 10x payout. 1/5 is higher than 1/10, so bet odds are okay, but you must consider that this guy's going to bet into you on the turn and river also. That's the $5 plus two more $10 bets. So now you’re facing $25 more till the end of the hand.

You have to consider your chances of hitting that flush on the turn or river, which makes it about 35% (better than 1 in 3 now), but you have to invest $25 for a finishing pot of $100: $100/$25 with 1 in 4. That's pretty close. But there's more! If you don't make it on the turn, it'll change your outs and odds!

You'll have a 19.6% chance of hitting the flush (little worse than 1 in 5), but a $20 investment for a finishing pot of $100! $100/$20 is 1 in 5. So the chances would take a nasty turn if you didn't hit it! What's makes it more complicated is that if you did hit it on the turn, you could raise him back, and get an extra $20 or maybe even $40 in the pot. Is there an easier way to calculate pot odds?

Thankfully, there are several short cuts that have been devised to make a quick judgment for pot odds.

One of the easiest methods is to take your total outs, multiply times 2, and then add 2. This is roughly a percentage chance of making your hand.

For example, say you have an inside straight draw with 4 outs. 4x2 = 8. Add 2, for a total of 10. You have roughly a 10% chance to make your hand. Your call should be no more than 10% of what is already in the pot. This method is quick and decently effective, though certain calculations will be a bit off.

This method does not take into consideration the fact that you may have more than one card remaining to come; it simply estimates your chance of hitting your “out” on your next card.

There are a number of tools online that help you calculate your odds. Just do a Google search, and you’ll find several. Keep in mind, though, that using them may significantly slow your play and cause your fellow players to interpret this as a “tell”.

Playing your pocket cards is key, but you’ll also need to know some strategies when it comes to the flop and the river.

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